1] Introduction:

 

• Look at three new nations of Micronesia as we move into new century
• Review of the economic and educational picture through numbers and the story they tell
• Goal of this presentation: reflect on our bearings and whether we should make any course changes, especially in our education planning.

 

2] Micronesia’s Population:

 

• Population change over time: down and then way up. Present population is three times the pre-contact population of islands.

 

3] Population Ups and Downs:

 

• History of population decline in 19^th century (diseases, etc)
• Steady population during Japanese period
• Rapid growth after World War II (antibiotics, lower death rate, increased fertility)
• Population since 1970: steady in Palau; high growth in FSM and RMI (although RMI growth dropping sharply: reported 49,000 pop with 1.3% growth rate)

 

4] Fertility

 

• Declining fertility everywhere
• Palau’s (8+ in 1960s) declining most rapidly, then FSM’s, finally Marshalls’s

 

5] Emigration Graph

 

• Palau: began earliest (in 1950s)
• Others began at the onset of the Compact (1986)

 

6] Emigration Table

 

• History of emigration: Palau after war; then Yapese outer islanders by 1980; finally RMI (to Costa Mesa, etc.)
• Palau: high since 1970, leading to stable, non-growth population
• FSM: about 1% (perhaps as high as 1.2%) yearly since 1986; same rate in RMI

 

6] Emigration Rates

 

• 25,000 Micronesians abroad; 1 out of 8 living overseas
• Annual total outflow: 1,750 per year (little higher than number of high school students graduating every year)
• Relevance to education: different streams of migrants: high school grads, college finishers, dropouts. All of these categories are among those leaving (illustrations)

 

7] Major Sources of Income

 

• Fishing and tourism the two big industries; agriculture exports are insignificant
• No commercial farming as such, but small exports (betelnut from Yap, sakau from Pohnpei, kon from Chuuk). Desperate need for good cash crop to replace copra (copra prices dropped 2/3 from 1980 to 1990.
• Fishing: most comes from license fees for foreign ships; rest from service to vessels
• Tourism: figures are based on estimated expenditures in country

 

8] Tourism

 

• Visitor entries show increase everywhere, but Palau is only place on fast track.
• Tourism in Palau 10 times higher than in 1980; it is now close to 100,000. (Saipan was over 700,000 before recession).  Imported labor needed to handle the jobs– 5,000 aliens on the island.

 

9] Employment

 

• History of rapid expansion of employment during the 1960s and 1970s–from 3,000 to 18,000. Total wages very high.
• Private sector still dependent on government salaries. No independent take-off of private industry yet.
• Number of private employees now outnumbers government employees in all nations. But the average private salary is only half of the average government salary.
• Cutback of employees in FSM since 1990, with the reduction of cost of government. RMI has done little on this.  Palau looking for labor.

 

10] Gross Domestic Product

 

• GDP is one index of the wealth of a nation
• Contrast between Palau and other two nations.
• Palau has balance in foreign exchange. RMI is heavily in debt.

 

11] Strength of Local Economy

 

• Subsistence production still plays a big role in FSM, as well as RMI and Palau. It equals about one-fourth of economy.
• Subsistence will be important in the years ahead, even as it declines.

 

12] School Enrollment

 

• Palau enrollment decreased in last 25 years. Reason is stable population due to emigration.
• Marshalls and FSM: huge increase in past years because of high population growth. Burden of expansion of school system with $$ and personnel.
• But compare 1994 and 1995 elementary school figures for FSM and RMI. School enrollment seems to have peaked.

 

13] Private Schools: Elementary

 

• Marshalls is the highest. Palau has also grown.  FSM has declined in the years 1970-1994.
• Importance of the policy: 1) get other institutions to help you educate children and save money; 2) private schools can improve standards and challenge public school performance.

 

14] Private Schools: Secondary

 

• In Marshalls, 57% attend private high schools. In Palau about 23%.  FSM has 20%.
• Disincentives in FSM: land lease problems, squatters, etc.

 

 

15] Retention Rates

 

• Retention is one indicator of success, but not the only one.
• Kosrae has highest retention: nearly all 8^th graders (94%) get into high school. Palau is next highest: 90% get into high school.  But geographical and demographic factors help.
• For all other places, total retention (1-12) is well under 50%
• Note the sharp high school drop out rates, especially in Chuuk and RMI.

 

16] High School graduates

 

• Total: over 1500 a year. This is a little less than total outflow in migration (1750).
• The education system puts in 5,300 1^st graders each year and gets out 1,500 high school grads.

 

17] Educational Attainment

 

• Palau significantly higher than other places. It is double percentage of high school grads in RMI, and double percentage of those with some college in RMI.
• Value put on education in Palau is legendary. (half of XHS student body in the 1950s and 1960s was Palauan.  Story of post-war rebuilding of schools there)

 

Conclusion

 

• Young people moving in three streams–to village or outer island, to urban centers, abroad for jobs
• Need for broad skill base, not narrowly focused, to provide language and other skills needed
• Expansion days over. Now we can concentrate on strengthening the system and improving the quality of education.
• What do we intend to do with our education system in the light of these economic and demographic currents today? (This is where we’re headed.  What direction do we go?)